2027: Why Jonathan Cannot Run

• Moves to Halt Tinubu’s Re-election Intensify
• Northern Leaders Seek a One-Term Southern President
• Political Realignments Underway
• Opposition Parties Consider Coalition Against APC
• Niger-Delta Ex-Agitators Support Southern Unity, Back Tinubu

By Clifford Ndujihe, Politics Editor

As the February 20, 2027, presidential election approaches—910 days away according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)—the political scene is already abuzz, as if the poll were imminent.

Despite President Bola Tinubu, who took office on May 29, 2023, being just 15 months into his first term, political leaders, particularly from the North, are deep in consultations, with behind-the-scenes alignments ongoing.

Leaders of opposition parties have expressed their intention to form a strong coalition to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), citing what they claim is Tinubu’s poor performance, which has led to increased hardship for Nigerians.

Earlier this week, a potential joint ticket of Imo State Governor Senator Hope Uzodimma and APC National Chairman Alhaji Umaru Ganduje was reported, though Ganduje quickly distanced himself from the speculation, suggesting it was an attempt to create a rift between him and President Tinubu.

Northern power brokers opposed to Tinubu’s re-election are reportedly seeking a southern candidate who would serve only one term, thus allowing the North to regain power, in keeping with the North-South power rotation agreement.

After Tinubu’s four-year term ends in 2027, the South would need another four years to balance the eight years of the Buhari administration.

This search for a one-term southern president has led some to support the candidacy of former President Goodluck Jonathan, with a northern group proposing a Jonathan-Governor Umaru Fintiri ticket for the 2027 election under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

2018 Law Disqualifies Jonathan

However, Jonathan, who sought a second term in 2015 and was defeated by Buhari, is disqualified from running in 2027 due to a 2018 constitutional amendment.

This law, which was signed by Buhari, limits the tenure of vice presidents and deputy governors who succeed their principals.

It stipulates that a person cannot be sworn in as president or governor more than twice.

Political Realignments for 2027

In preparation for the 2027 election, former presidential candidates such as Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP have been holding meetings, fueling speculation about political realignments.

These discussions are seen as part of a broader strategy to challenge the APC in the upcoming polls.

Why the North Opposes Tinubu’s Re-election

Despite Tinubu’s critical role in Buhari’s 2015 victory, some northern political figures feel betrayed by his administration, accusing him of neglecting northern interests and favoring his own ethnic group in key appointments.

Prominent northern groups, such as the Northern Elders’ Forum (NEF), have expressed regret over supporting Tinubu in 2023 and are now working to select a candidate who can better unify the country.

Niger-Delta Ex-Agitators Call for Southern Unity

Meanwhile, the Niger Delta Ex-Agitators Forum has condemned what it sees as a northern plot to undermine southern political leadership, calling for solidarity among southern leaders.

The group has voiced its support for Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope Agenda” and urged southern politicians to stand together in the face of northern opposition.