Are Manchester United Really in a Relegation Battle?

Ruben Amorim’s comments following Manchester United’s 2-0 defeat to Newcastle United at Old Trafford were startling. The Portuguese coach, whose team now sits 14th, just seven points above the relegation zone, openly acknowledged the possibility of a relegation battle.

This would be an unimaginable scenario for a club that last faced relegation 50 years ago, back in the 1973-74 season, and has since remained a staple of English football’s top tier. With United’s financial power and stature, relegation seems far-fetched, but how realistic is this threat in the current season?

United’s Current Form

Manchester United’s form has been dismal. Their loss to Newcastle marked their third consecutive Premier League defeat and fifth in their last six matches. They are currently in 14th place, with just a seven-point cushion above the drop zone, a position they haven’t found themselves in at the turn of the year since 1989.

Under Amorim, United’s form has worsened. In the eight Premier League matches since his appointment in November, they have earned just seven points from a possible 24. In December alone, they lost six games across all competitions, their worst month since 1962, conceding 18 goals – their most in a month since 1964.

How Many Points Are Needed to Avoid Relegation?

Historically, teams need an average of around 35.6 points to stay in the Premier League since the 38-game season format began in 1995-96. Last season, Nottingham Forest secured survival with just 32 points in 17th place. United currently have 22 points from 19 matches and would finish on 44 points if they maintain their form. However, Amorim’s tenure has seen a decline, with the team averaging only 0.88 points per game under him. If this continues, United could end the season with 39 points, dangerously close to the relegation zone, where 42 points have been the highest total recorded by a team relegated in a 38-game season.

Relegation Likelihood

Despite the worrying signs, data from Opta suggests that relegation is still highly unlikely for United. According to Opta’s simulations, the club has a 0.1% chance of finishing 18th, with a 0% chance of falling into the bottom two. In fact, United are more likely to finish in 5th place (1.3%) than to be relegated. Their most probable final positions are 12th (15.1%), 13th (13.9%), or 11th (12.6%).

While Amorim’s side may not reach the lofty heights fans expect, relegation is not on the cards for Manchester United at this stage.