For the third year in a row, China’s population has declined, marking a significant demographic challenge for the world’s second-most populous nation. According to government data released on Friday, China’s population stood at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, a decrease of 1.39 million compared to the previous year.
This trend reflects broader patterns seen globally, particularly in East Asia, where nations like Japan and South Korea are grappling with falling birth rates. China officially joined the ranks of countries with declining populations three years ago, a list that also includes much of Eastern Europe.
The reasons behind the decline are familiar: rising living costs, delayed or avoided marriage and childbirth, and an emphasis on education and career pursuits among younger generations. While life expectancy has increased, it has not been enough to offset declining birth rates. Countries like China, with restrictive immigration policies, face even greater risks of demographic imbalance.
Historically, China has maintained its position as one of the most populous nations, enduring crises such as invasions, natural disasters, and political upheavals. After World War II and the Communist Party’s rise to power in 1949, the population surged, doubling within three decades despite events like the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
To curb overpopulation concerns, the government introduced the “one-child policy” in 1980. Though not codified as law, the policy enforced strict reproductive controls, including mandatory permits for childbirth, forced abortions, and heavy penalties for violations. Rural areas, where a preference for male offspring was strong, became a focal point of enforcement. This led to a skewed sex ratio, with independent estimates suggesting millions more males than females, raising concerns about social stability.
In recent years, the government has faced mounting challenges, including a rapidly aging population, a shrinking workforce, and sluggish consumer markets. By 2023, China’s total population began declining, and India surpassed it as the world’s most populous country. Official data reveals that over 22% of China’s population—310.3 million people—are aged 60 or older. Projections suggest this figure could exceed 30% by 2035, prompting discussions about raising the country’s low retirement age.
Meanwhile, China’s urbanization continues, with 10 million more people moving to cities in 2024, raising the urbanization rate to 67%. However, government efforts to incentivize childbirth—such as cash payouts and housing subsidies—have shown limited success.
The strain on China’s social security system and the transformation of some vacant schools into elder care facilities reflect the growing burden of an aging society. These challenges fuel concerns that China, despite being the world’s second-largest economy, may “grow old before it grows rich.”
