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Russian gas has ceased flowing to European Union (EU) states through Ukraine after a long-standing deal expired, signaling the end of a decades-long energy arrangement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the move, stating that Ukraine would not allow Russia to “profit from our blood.” Meanwhile, the Polish government hailed the cessation of gas transit as “another victory” against Russia.
Gazprom, the Russian state-owned gas company, confirmed that gas exports via Ukraine to Europe stopped at 08:00 local time (05:00 GMT) on January 1. The cutoff comes after more than three decades of transporting gas through Ukraine, which began in 1991.
Though the immediate effects on gas supply are minimal, the decision has both symbolic and strategic significance. While Russia has lost a key market, President Vladimir Putin asserts that European countries will bear the brunt of the consequences.
The EU has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian gas since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In 2023, Russian gas accounted for less than 10% of the EU’s total imports, down from 40% in 2021. However, countries like Slovakia and Austria still depend on Russian gas to meet their energy needs, making Russia about €5bn ($5.2bn; £4.2bn) annually.
Austria’s energy regulator has stated that there is no expected disruption due to diversified energy sources and reserves. However, the termination of the transit deal has already created tensions with Slovakia, which remains a key transit point for Russian gas into the EU. Slovakia has warned of rising gas prices for consumers in 2025 due to the end of the deal.
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has raised concerns about “drastic” consequences for EU countries but emphasized that Russia would not be as severely affected. Following a visit to Moscow, Fico threatened to halt electricity supplies to Ukraine, prompting Zelensky to accuse Fico of indirectly aiding Russian efforts to undermine Ukraine.
Poland has offered to support Ukraine by providing alternative gas routes through Croatia and Germany. Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stressed the importance of these routes to avoid enabling Russia to profit from energy sales to the EU.
Moldova, which is not an EU member, faces serious challenges due to the end of the gas transit deal. The country relies heavily on Russian gas to generate electricity, particularly in the breakaway region of Transnistria. Moldova’s energy minister has assured citizens that efforts are in place to ensure stable power supplies, but citizens are urged to conserve energy.
Russia had previously reduced gas supplies to Moldova, citing unpaid bills, a claim the Moldovan government denied. Moldova’s President Maia Sandu accused Russia of using energy as a “political weapon” in an effort to destabilize the country ahead of its 2025 general election.
The European Union has successfully sourced alternative natural gas supplies from the US, Qatar, and Norway since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The European Commission has already outlined plans to entirely replace Russian gas transiting through Ukraine.