A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has endured for over a month, although experts believe that the terms may not be fully met by the agreed deadline.
The ceasefire, which took effect on November 27, aimed to end hostilities, with Hezbollah agreeing to cease all military actions in southern Lebanon, and Israel required to withdraw its forces within 60 days, handing over control to the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers.
So far, Israel has pulled out from only two of the many towns it controls in southern Lebanon, and continues to strike what it claims are Hezbollah bases, accusing the group of preparing to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be destroyed.
Hezbollah, weakened by nearly 14 months of conflict, has warned that it will resume fighting if Israel does not complete its withdrawal within the stipulated 60-day timeframe. Despite mutual accusations of hundreds of ceasefire violations, analysts believe that the ceasefire is likely to hold, bringing some relief to thousands of displaced Israeli and Lebanese families who are still awaiting their return home.
“The ceasefire agreement is ambiguous and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington. This flexibility could help the deal endure despite shifting circumstances, including the ousting of Syria’s long-time leader, Bashar Assad, shortly after the ceasefire was implemented.
With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital smuggling route for weapons from Iran, further weakening the group, although Israel had already committed to the U.S.-brokered ceasefire.
The conflict began on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel, a day after Hamas initiated its deadly attack in Gaza. Since then, Israeli forces have conducted air and ground assaults, killing more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including many civilians. The war displaced over a million Lebanese, while Hezbollah rockets caused over 60,000 Israelis to flee their homes and killed 76, including 31 soldiers.
What Does the Ceasefire Agreement Entail?
The agreement states that both Hezbollah and Israel are to halt “offensive” military operations but may act in self-defense, though the exact interpretation of this term remains unclear.
The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from launching attacks into Israel, and must dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure in southern Lebanon. However, the agreement does not specify whether this responsibility extends to the entire country.
The U.S., France, Israel, Lebanon, and the U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) are charged with overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire.
“The key issue is not whether the deal will hold, but which version of it will be enforced,” Maksad said.
Is the Ceasefire Being Enforced?
Hezbollah has largely ceased its rocket and drone attacks on Israel, and Israel has refrained from attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. However, Israel continues to conduct airstrikes on what it claims are Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.
Israel has withdrawn from two southern Lebanese towns, Khiam and Shamaa, but remains in about 60 other towns, according to the International Organization for Migration. Approximately 160,000 Lebanese citizens remain displaced.
Lebanon has accused Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement and filed a complaint with the U.N. Security Council, citing 816 air and ground attacks by Israel between the start of the ceasefire and December 22, 2023. These attacks, Lebanon claims, have hindered its army’s ability to deploy and enforce the ceasefire.
Meanwhile, Israel claims Hezbollah has violated the ceasefire hundreds of times, including by moving ammunition, launching rockets, and preparing attacks on Israeli soldiers.
While Israel continues to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons storage and tunnels, Lebanese authorities claim that Israel has also damaged civilian homes and infrastructure.
What Happens After the Ceasefire’s 60-Day Period?
Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated, primarily due to the lack of Lebanese army personnel ready to assume control, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesperson. However, Lebanon disputes this, claiming it is waiting for Israel to complete its withdrawal.
Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army’s control in the towns it has already left, but security remains a top priority for Israel. The 60-day deadline for withdrawal is not considered “sacred” by Israel, according to Harel Chorev, an expert at Tel Aviv University. He suggests that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy additional troops before Israel is comfortable handing over more control.
Hezbollah has warned that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon beyond the 60-day period, it could resume hostilities. However, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naim Kassem, stated that the group is currently holding off to allow the Lebanese state to take responsibility for enforcing the ceasefire.
Despite its weakened state, Hezbollah may not be able to return to open warfare with Israel, but could resort to guerrilla attacks if Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon, according to former Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni. Even if Israeli forces withdraw, Jouni notes that Israel could continue airstrikes, similar to its ongoing operations in Syria.
