Harris Holds Narrow Edge Over Trump in Final Polls as 2024 Election Looms

With the 2024 U.S. presidential election only a day away, polls show a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Several national surveys reveal Harris with a slight lead, but many indicate a statistical tie, particularly in key battleground states, making the outcome highly uncertain.

National Polling Snapshot

A HarrisX/Forbes poll conducted from Wednesday to Friday gives Harris a narrow 49%-48% lead among likely voters, with a margin of error of one point, making the race essentially a toss-up. Similarly, a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll shows Harris with a four-point lead (51%-47%), and Morning Consult’s latest data places her two points ahead at 49%-47%. However, these numbers have fluctuated slightly over recent weeks, reflecting a gradually tightening race as Election Day nears.

Other surveys underscore the unpredictable nature of the contest. ABC/Ipsos polling shows Harris ahead by three points at 49%-46%, but NBC News and Emerson College both report a 49% tie, as does a Yahoo News/YouGov poll at 47%-47%. In total, the polling averages suggest an incredibly close race nationally, with no clear frontrunner.

Swing State Dynamics

The election may be decided by a handful of battleground states, where both candidates have shown strength. Harris is currently leading in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to polling averages, while Trump is favored in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. These states collectively represent a significant number of electoral votes, and the margins remain razor-thin in several, notably Pennsylvania, where both candidates have devoted extensive time and resources in the final days.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump is slightly favored in the Electoral College, winning in 53 out of 100 scenarios based on current polling and historical voting patterns. However, with nearly every swing state polling within a margin of error, small changes in voter turnout or late-breaking sentiment could tilt the balance.

Latinos and Shifting Demographics

One notable shift in this election cycle has been among Latino voters, traditionally a strong Democratic demographic. While Harris maintains a lead with Latino voters, recent data from an NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll shows her support has not reached the levels seen by previous Democratic candidates, such as Biden in 2020 or Clinton in 2016. The September poll of 1,000 registered Latino voters indicates Harris with 54% support compared to Trump’s 40%, with 6% undecided. Though Harris is still leading, the 14-point margin is lower than the 36-point advantage held by Biden and the 50-point margin for Clinton.

The Debate’s Limited Impact

While Harris’s debate performance last month received positive feedback, polling suggests it did not greatly affect her standings against Trump. A New York Times/Siena poll taken shortly after the debate reported that 67% of voters thought Harris performed well, compared to 40% for Trump. However, most surveys indicate that voters’ opinions remained largely unchanged post-debate, with Harris maintaining a lead of 49%-48% in an NPR/PBS/Marist survey conducted shortly afterward.

Background and Candidate Momentum

The 2024 race took a significant turn in July when President Biden withdrew, following pressure from within the Democratic Party after a challenging debate. Harris stepped in with widespread party support and quickly secured the nomination. Since her candidacy announcement, Democratic enthusiasm has surged to 85% among likely Democratic voters, nearly doubling from early summer, based on polling from Monmouth University. Republican enthusiasm has remained consistent at around 71%.

For her vice-presidential running mate, Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, aiming to solidify support in Midwestern swing states. Trump, meanwhile, chose Ohio Senator JD Vance, reflecting his commitment to consolidating support in key rust belt regions.

Statistical Models and Forecasts

Polling aggregators and forecasters offer differing views on the likely outcome. FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a one-point edge in its polling average, yet RealClearPolitics shows Trump ahead by 0.2 points. Nate Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” forecast sees Harris up by 0.9 points. Though Harris has consistently led since her July candidacy announcement, her advantage peaked in late August and has since narrowed, underscoring the competitive nature of the race.

Closing the 2024 Election: The Stakes

With polls set to close within 24 hours, both candidates are ramping up their final push. Harris and Trump are each visiting multiple swing states on Monday, seeking to galvanize supporters. Experts caution that, despite polling averages, the race could easily swing in either direction. Historical polling inaccuracies in previous elections have amplified uncertainty, with analysts debating how misjudgments might play out this year and which candidate may benefit.

Final Takeaway

The latest polls reveal an intensely close race with a mix of results across various demographics and states, leaving much to be decided as voters head to the polls. With both candidates pulling out all stops in key regions and voter turnout expected to be high, the stage is set for a potentially historic showdown.