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President Emmanuel Macron met with centrist leader François Bayrou on Friday, fueling speculation over who will succeed Michel Barnier as France’s next prime minister. This meeting comes as Macron works to end months of political uncertainty.
It has been nine days since the French National Assembly ousted Barnier in a no-confidence vote, with Macron initially promising to appoint a new prime minister by Thursday. However, his announcement was delayed, and it was only on Friday that he met with Bayrou, a prominent ally. Bayrou, the mayor of Pau and leader of the centrist MoDem party, is widely seen as a top contender for the role.
French politics has been in a state of deadlock since Macron’s decision to call snap parliamentary elections earlier this summer. If Bayrou is appointed, he would become Macron’s fourth prime minister this year.
An opinion poll for BFMTV revealed that 61% of French voters are concerned about the political situation. Macron, who had cut short a visit to Poland to focus on the issue, met with Bayrou for nearly two hours at the Elysée Palace. Although preparations were made at the prime minister’s residence, Hôtel Matignon, there was no confirmation that Bayrou was the one being prepared for the post.
Should Bayrou be chosen, his main challenge will be forming a stable government. Macron may seek support from centre-left parties to ensure the new prime minister isn’t ousted in the same way Barnier was.
Macron has already held discussions with major political party leaders, excluding Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left France Unbowed (LFI) and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. Among the other leading candidates to replace Barnier were Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu and former prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve.
Barnier’s government collapsed after his proposed €60bn tax increases and spending cuts were rejected by a coalition of left-wing MPs and Le Pen’s National Rally. These measures were aimed at reducing France’s budget deficit, which is expected to reach 6.1% of GDP this year.
Under France’s political system, the president appoints a prime minister, who then forms a cabinet. Macron called for snap elections earlier this year after poor results in the EU elections, leading to a divided parliament with large blocs on the left, centre, and far-right. After Barnier’s government failed, Macron is now looking to restore stability without relying on Le Pen’s party.
Centre-left parties such as the Socialists, Greens, and Communists have broken from the radical left LFI and are in talks about joining a new government. However, they have made it clear they want a left-wing prime minister, which complicates the situation for Bayrou, a centrist.
Green leader Marine Tondelier expressed concerns over Bayrou’s candidacy, stating that his centrist stance could undermine the broader leftist agenda. Relations between the centre-left and Mélenchon’s LFI have soured as negotiations progress.
Meanwhile, Le Pen has urged that her party’s cost-of-living policies be considered in the formation of the next government, hoping for a budget that respects each party’s key priorities.
Barnier’s caretaker government has introduced a bill to extend the 2024 budget into the next year, but a new budget for 2025 will need approval once the new government takes office.
