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On New Year’s Day, Russian gas supplies through Ukraine ceased, marking a significant shift in Eastern Europe’s energy dynamics. Kyiv has declared it a “historic” move to cut financial support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but for neighboring Moldova, the development threatens a severe energy crisis.
Heat Shortages in Transnistria
In Transnistria, Moldova’s separatist region backed by Moscow, residents began the year without heating for most households. Only hospitals and critical infrastructure are receiving warmth as gas supplies dwindle.
Dmitry, a local resident in Transnistria, described the situation:
“The hot water stopped around 2 AM, and now the radiators are barely warm. We still have gas, but the pressure is very low.”
Transnistria, which declared independence from Moldova in the early 1990s, remains heavily reliant on Russian gas. The region pays nothing for these supplies, accruing a debt Russia has shown little interest in collecting. Now, with gas supplies halted via Ukraine, the region is scrambling to cope.
Authorities are setting up “heating points” and advising residents to gather in single rooms for warmth. Overnight temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing, worsening the situation.
Electricity Blackout Threats
Transnistria’s main power plant in Kurchugan, now running on limited coal reserves, faces a potential shutdown within 50 days. This threatens not only Transnistria but also Moldova, which sources 80% of its electricity from the plant.
The Moldovan government has announced plans to secure electricity from Europe but warned that higher costs will place a significant burden on the country. A state of emergency is already in effect, with citizens and businesses urged to conserve energy.
Impact Beyond Moldova
The gas halt also affects Slovakia and Hungary, two EU nations still reliant on Russian gas. Both have maintained closer ties to Moscow than other EU states and will now face increased costs for alternative supplies. However, Moldova, being poorer and less stable, is expected to bear the brunt of the crisis.
Russia’s Role in the Crisis
Gazprom claims the stoppage is due to Moldova’s $700 million gas debt, but the Moldovan government disputes this, citing an independent audit that estimates the true figure at $9 million, most of which has been repaid.
Moldovan officials accuse Moscow of weaponizing energy to destabilize the country.
“This is not an energy crisis; it’s a security crisis orchestrated by Russia to destabilize Moldova economically and socially,” said Olga Rosca, foreign policy adviser to Moldova’s President Maia Sandu.
Political Tensions Rise
The crisis comes as Moldova strengthens its pro-European stance and moves closer to EU accession talks. Relations with Moscow have deteriorated, particularly after President Sandu’s re-election last year, despite a Moscow-led disinformation campaign against her.
The Kremlin’s narrative claims Moldova is using the energy crisis to force Transnistria into submission, a stance analysts view as a strategic move to erode public support for the pro-European government.
Economic and Humanitarian Consequences
In Transnistria, local residents are bracing for economic hardship. Dmitry from Bendery shared his concerns:
“If gas prices rise, heating and food costs will follow. But pensions are tiny here, and there’s no work. People are barely clinging on.”
Moldova faces similar challenges, with electricity prices already skyrocketing sixfold in the past three years. Political analysts warn that prolonged hardship could lead to a resurgence of pro-Russian parties in Moldova’s 2025 elections.
Conclusion
As Moldova grapples with the fallout from the gas halt, the crisis underscores the broader geopolitical struggle in Eastern Europe. For many, the situation highlights the urgent need for energy diversification and the resilience required to withstand Moscow’s influence.