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Recently, Donald Trump, the U.S. president-elect, voiced his stance that the Panama Canal should be returned to the United States, even suggesting the possibility of using military force to take it back. At his presidential inauguration on Monday, Trump reiterated his position.
This threat, which challenges decades of U.S. policy, would be an immense undertaking for a president who has consistently opposed American military involvement in overseas conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. It would be a difficult case to make to the American public.
The Panama Canal was handed back to Panama following negotiations during President Jimmy Carter’s administration. In 1978, Carter secured a historic agreement to transfer control of the canal to Panama, believing it was the right thing to do, considering it was a remnant of the era when the U.S. held considerable influence in Central America. Notably, the Panama Canal treaties were supported by leaders from both political parties, including Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Bill Clinton, and were fully implemented when Panama took control of the canal’s operations on December 31, 1999.
Since then, the management of the canal by Panama has been smooth, with the U.S. benefiting greatly from its operations, as over two-thirds of the ships passing through the canal are heading to or coming from American ports.
In response to Trump’s claims about reclaiming the canal, Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino issued a statement affirming that “every square meter of the Panama Canal belongs to Panama and will remain so.”
Despite this, earlier this month, Trump again mentioned the possibility of using military force to reclaim the canal.
A military campaign to seize control of the canal would be a major operation. The canal spans more than 500 square miles, and Panama’s population of 4.5 million would likely resist any form of U.S. occupation. According to U.S. Army estimates, about 90,000 troops would be required for effective counterinsurgency operations in Panama.
Such an action would also place the U.S. in a ground conflict, a type of warfare Trump has criticized. Additionally, there are legal questions about whether the U.S. president has the authority to send troops to seize the canal without congressional approval, as military actions typically require a formal resolution.
Moreover, any military operation to take control of the Panama Canal would severely disrupt global trade, as the canal facilitates 6% of the world’s trade. This disruption comes at a time when the Houthis in Yemen have already disrupted another vital trade route through the Red Sea, further straining global commerce.
Though Trump has built his political brand on unconventional approaches, attempting to reclaim the Panama Canal, whether through threats or military force, would be a dangerous and likely unsuccessful endeavor.
